Radiomics Analysis on Multiphase Contrast-Enhanced CT: A Survival Prediction Tool in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization

Patients with HCC receiving TACE have various clinical outcomes. Several prognostic models have been proposed to predict clinical outcomes for patients with hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), but establishing an accurate prognostic model remains necessary. We aimed to develop a radiomics signature from pretreatment CT to establish a combined radiomics-clinic (CRC) model to predict survival for these patients. We compared this CRC model to the existing prognostic models in predicting patient survival. This retrospective study included multicenter data from 162 treatment-naive patients with unresectable HCC undergoing TACE as an initial treatment from January 2007 and March 2017. We randomly allocated patients to a training cohort (n= 108) and a testing cohort (n= 54). Radiomics features were extracted from intra- and peritumoral regions on both the arterial phase and portal venous phase CT images. A radiomics signature (Rad-signature) for survival was constructed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method in the training cohort. We used univariate and multivariate Cox regressions to identify associations between the Rad- signature and clinical factors of survival. From these, a CRC model was developed, validated, and further compared with previously published prognostic models including four-and-seven criteria, six-and-twelve score, hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic scores, and albumin-bilirubin grade. The CRC model incorporated two variables: The Rad-signature (composed of features extracted from intra- and peritumoral regions on the arterial phase and portal venous phase) and tumor number. The CRC model performed better than the other seven well-recognized prognostic models, with concordance indices of 0.73 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-0.79] and 0.70 [95% CI 0.62-0.82] in the training and testing cohorts, respectively. Among the seven models tested, the six-and-12 score and four-and-seven criteria performed better than the other models, with C-indices of 0.64 [95% CI 0.58-0.70] and 0.65 [95% CI 0.55-0.75] in the testing cohort, respectively. The CT radiomics signature represents an independent biomarker of survival in patients with HCC undergoing TACE, and the CRC model displayed improved predictive performance.