期刊
ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE
卷 7, 期 6, 页码 -出版社
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rsos.200599
关键词
tipping point; critical threshold; hysteresis; tipping cascade; Earth system; eutrophication
资金
- German National Academic Foundation (Studienstiftung des deutschen Volkes)
- Stordalen Foundation via the Planetary Boundary Research Network (PB.net)
- Earth League's EarthDoc program
- European Research Council Advanced Grant project ERA (Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene)
- Leibniz Association (project DominoES)
In ecology, climate and other fields, (sub)systems have been identified that can transition into a qualitatively different state when a critical threshold or tipping point in a driving process is crossed. An understanding of those tipping elements is of great interest given the increasing influence of humans on the biophysical Earth system. Complex interactions exist between tipping elements, e.g. physical mechanisms connect subsystems of the climate system. Based on earlier work on such coupled nonlinear systems, we systematically assessed the qualitative long-term behaviour of interacting tipping elements. We developed an understanding of the consequences of interactions on the tipping behaviour allowing for tipping cascades to emerge under certain conditions. The (narrative) application of these qualitative results to real-world examples of interacting tipping elements indicates that tipping cascades with profound consequences may occur: the interacting Greenland ice sheet and thermohaline ocean circulation might tip before the tipping points of the isolated subsystems are crossed. The eutrophication of the first lake in a lake chain might propagate through the following lakes without a crossing of their individual critical nutrient input levels. The possibility of emerging cascading tipping dynamics calls for the development of a unified theory of interacting tipping elements and the quantitative analysis of interacting real-world tipping elements.
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