Early Prediction of Clinical Response to Etanercept Treatment in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Using Machine Learning

Background and Aims At present, there is a lack of simple and reliable model for early prediction of the efficacy of etanercept in the treatment of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). This study aimed to generate and validate prediction models of etanercept efficacy in patients with JIA before administration using machine learning algorithms based on electronic medical record (EMR). Materials and Methods EMR data of 87 JIA patients treated with etanercept between January 2011 and December 2018 were collected retrospectively. The response of etanercept was evaluated by using DAS44/ESR-3 simplified standard. The stepwise forward and backward method based on information gain was applied to select features. Five machine learning algorithms, including Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), Extremely Random Trees (ET) and Logistic Regression (LR) were used for model generation and validation with fifty-fold stratified cross-validation. EMR data of additional 14 patients were collected for external validation of the model. Results Tender joint count (TJC), Time interval, Lymphocyte percentage (LYM), and Weight were screened out and included in the final model. The model generated by the XGBoost algorithm based on the above 4 features had the best predictive performance: sensitivity 75%, specificity 66.67%, accuracy 72.22%, AUC 79.17%, respectively. Conclusion A pre-administration model with good prediction performance for etanercept response in JIA was developed using advanced machine learning algorithms. Clinicians and pharmacists can use this simple and accurate model to predict etanercept response of JIA early and avoid treatment failure or adverse effects.