期刊
FRONTIERS OF EARTH SCIENCE
卷 14, 期 4, 页码 711-737出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11707-020-0821-5
关键词
U-234; U-238; groundwater; earthquake; active fault; Baikal
资金
- Russian Science Foundation [18-77-10027]
- Russian Science Foundation [18-77-10027] Funding Source: Russian Science Foundation
In the western part of the South Baikal Basin, spatial-temporal distribution of earthquake epicenters shows quasi-periodic seismic reactivation. The largest earthquakes that occurred in 1999 (M-W= 6.0) and 2008 (M-W= 6.3) fall within seismic intervals of 1994-2003 and 2003-2012, respectively. In the seismic interval that began in 2013, the(234)U/U-238 activity ratio (AR) in groundwater was monitored assuming its dependence on crack opening/closing that facilitated/prevented water circulation in an active boundary fault of the basin. Transitions from disordered, high-amplitude fluctuations ofARvalues to consistent, low-amplitude fluctuations in different monitoring sites were found to be sensitive indicators of both small seismic events occurring directly on the observation area, and of a large remote earthquake. The hydroisotopic responses to seismic events were consistent with monitoring data on deformation and temperature variations of rocks. The hydroisotopic effects can be applied for detecting a seismically dangerous state of an active fault and prediction of a large future earthquake.
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