Assessment of Rainfall Distributions and Characteristics in Coastal Provinces of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta under Climate Change and ENSO Processes

Rainwater is considered a promising alternative water source for coastal areas where freshwater resources are increasingly under pressure. This study evaluates rain regime characteristics that influence the ability to exploit rainwater in the coastal provinces of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). In particular, it considers the impact of climate change and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes. We analyzed rainfall data from 102 monitoring stations across the VMD from 1989 to 2017. Using statistical methods, we explored (1) characteristics of the rainy season, including the dates of onset and cessation and season length; (2) average rainfall volumes; and (3) the maximum number of consecutive nonrainy days during the rainy season and over the year. We also analyzed changes in these characteristics over time, in parallel with ENSO processes and climate change. Trend lines were determined using nonparametric methods, utilizing Sen's slope estimation and the Mann-Kendall test. Results showed a tendency for the rainy season to start earlier and end later in the western coastal zone of the study area, with season length gradually decreasing towards the East Sea and inland. The shortest rainy season was found in the estuary zone (in the northeast of the VMD). Rainfall was abundant on the west coast, again diminishing gradually towards the East Sea and inland. Rain was also quite plentiful during four dry season observation months in the study area, but it lacked the predictability needed for effective exploitation. The number of consecutive days without rain averaged 96 annually, with a difference of 29 days between the largest and smallest observations. The difference between the provinces with the longest and shortest periods without rain averaged 41 days. Although the impact of climate change on the rain regime is complex, we can say that the rainy season now tends to start earlier, end later, and be lengthier, though without exhibiting clear trends. ENSO processes significantly impacted rainfall regime characteristics, especially the dates of onset and cessation, and season length.