期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
卷 17, 期 16, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17165860
关键词
water environment carrying capacity; uncertainty; Monte Carlo method; system dynamics
资金
- China Clean Development Mechanism Fund, National Development and Reform Commission [2014031]
- National Social Science Fund of China, National Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Sciences [15ZDA015]
- Program of Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences, Ministry of Education of the China [15JJD810010]
- Science Foundation of Jilin Province [20180520101JH]
Water environment carrying capacity (WECC) is an effective indicator that can help resolve the contradiction between social and economic development and water environment pollution. Considering the complexity of the water environment and socioeconomic systems in Northeast China, this study establishes an evaluation index system and a system dynamics (SD) model of WECC in Fushun City, Liaoning, China, through the combination of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and SD. In consideration of the uncertainty of the future development of society, the Monte Carlo and scenario analysis methods are used to simulate the WECC of Fushun City. Results show that if the current social development mode is maintained, then the WECC in Fushun will have a slow improvement in the future, and a general carrying state with a WECC index of 0.566 in 2025 will be developed. Moreover, focusing on economic development (Scheme 1 with a WECC index of [0.22, 0.45] in 2025) or environmental protection (Scheme 2 with a WECC index of [0.48, 0.68] in 2025) cannot effectively improve the local water environment. Only by combining the two coordinated development modes (Scheme 3) can WECC be significantly improved and achieve general or good carrying state with a WECC index of [0.59, 0.79]. An important development of this study is that the probability of each scheme's realization can be calculated after different schemes are formulated. In turn, the feasibility of the scheme will be evaluated after knowing the probability, so as to determine the path suitable for local development. This is of great significance for future urban planning.
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