期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
卷 17, 期 11, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17113982
关键词
malaria; hotspot and incidence; spatio-temporal analysis; environment and meteorology; geo-epidemiology
资金
- French ARTS grant from the French Research Institute for Development France (IRD)
- Dynamique Spatio-temporelle de la Transmission du paludisme dans des Environnements Changeants of Jeunes Equipes associees a l'IRD (JEAI Dynastec)
Background: According to the World Health Organization, there were more than 228 million cases of malaria globally in 2018, with 93% of cases occurring in Africa; in Mali, a 13% increase in the number of cases was observed between 2015 and 2018; this study aimed to evaluate the impact of meteorological and environmental factors on the geo-epidemiology of malaria in the health district of Dire, Mali. Methods: Meteorological and environmental variables were synthesized using principal component analysis and multiple correspondence analysis, the relationship between malaria incidence and synthetic indicators was determined using a multivariate general additive model; hotspots were detected by SaTScan. Results: Malaria incidence showed high inter and intra-annual variability; the period of high transmission lasted from September to February; health areas characterized by proximity to the river, propensity for flooding and high agricultural yield were the most at risk, with an incidence rate ratio of 2.21 with confidence intervals (95% CI: 1.85-2.58); malaria incidence in Dire declined from 120 to 20 cases per 10,000 person-weeks between 2013 and 2017. Conclusion: The identification of areas and periods of high transmission can help improve malaria control strategies.
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