期刊
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
卷 10, 期 1, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-67969-5
关键词
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资金
- Second Century Fund (C2F) fellowship of Chulalongkorn University
- National Science and Technology Development Agency [P-15-50004]
- Center of Excellence in Clinical Virology at Chulalongkorn University and Hospital
- MK Restaurant Group
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infects young children and causes influenza-like illness. RSV circulation and prevalence differ among countries and climates. To better understand whether climate factors influence the seasonality of RSV in Thailand, we examined RSV data from children <= 5 years-old who presented with respiratory symptoms from January 2012-December 2018. From a total of 8,209 nasopharyngeal samples, 13.2% (1,082/8,209) was RSV-positive, of which 37.5% (406/1,082) were RSV-A and 36.4% (394/1,082) were RSV-B. The annual unimodal RSV activity from July-November overlaps with the rainy season. Association between meteorological data including monthly average temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind speed for central Thailand and the incidence of RSV over 7-years was analyzed using Spearman's rank and partial correlation. Multivariate time-series analysis with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model showed that RSV activity correlated positively with rainfall (r=0.41) and relative humidity (r=0.25), but negatively with mean temperature (r=-0.27). The best-fitting ARIMA (1,0,0)(2,1,0)(12) model suggests that peak RSV activity lags the hottest month of the year by 4 months. Our results enable possible prediction of RSV activity based on the climate and could help to anticipate the yearly upsurge of RSV in this region.
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