期刊
ROCK MECHANICS AND ROCK ENGINEERING
卷 53, 期 11, 页码 5111-5132出版社
SPRINGER WIEN
DOI: 10.1007/s00603-020-02210-3
关键词
Spatial-temporal; Clustering; Seismic event; Mining-induced seismicity
资金
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [2017QNA26]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [51874292]
- China Postdoctoral Council International Postdoctoral Exchange Fellowship Program [20170060]
Mining-induced seismicity has been reported almost in every mining country. Large seismic events with high-energy (HE) radiation can pose a serious threat to safe mining operations, which are the direct cause for rockbursts in underground mines. Over the last 30 years, statistical techniques to parameterise seismic data and predict seismic hazard have been developed significantly with promising results. However, similar to earthquake prediction, the prediction accuracy of HE seismic events remains a challenging task due to the complex nature of mining-induced seismic events. This paper aims to parameterise spatial, temporal and energy information conveyed by past seismic activities to provide early warnings for HE events. The 4D spatial-temporal seismic data were transferred to a 2D plane using principal component analysis (PCA) and then applied with a kernel density estimator to calculate their probability density function. The mode of probability density distribution,rho(x)(max), was proposed as a measure to quantify the clustering degree of past seismic events in the PCA space. The peaks of rho(x)(max)were found as an effective precursor to predicting the onset time of future HE events. After inverse transformation, the spatial locations of rho(x)(max)also indicate the potential high-risk areas that susceptible to HE events, which can be used to predict the onset location of HE events. As a supplement to the spatial-temporal information, energy/magnitude information was parameterised by the modified cumulative Benioff strain andbvalue. The accuracy of using these seismic parameters for the prediction of HE events has been assessed based on the seismic data collected from a Chinese coal mine.
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