期刊
PROCESS SAFETY PROGRESS
卷 40, 期 1, 页码 -出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/prs.12164
关键词
Bayesian network; lightning; Natech risk analysis; uncertainty
资金
- National Key Technology R&D Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology [2016YFC0801501]
The Natech risk assessment model based on Bayesian network can accurately express the causal relationship between risk factors, and conduct predictive and diagnostic analyses.
Based on the Bayesian network, a risk assessment model of Natech was established to assess the risks associated with lightning. Based on existing research results and expert analyses, a causal relationship between different parameters was constructed, and the conditional probability values of nodes were determined. This Natech risk assessment model was used to predict and analyze the fire explosion of inner floating roof tanks caused by lightning. The results showed that Natech risk assessment models by the Bayesian network could clearly express the direct causality of risk factors and perform both predictive and diagnostic analyses.
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