期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 117, 期 26, 页码 14751-14755出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1918987117
关键词
tropical cyclones; translation speed; local rainfall totals; flood risks
资金
- Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China [HKBU12303517, HKBU12302518]
- National Key Research and Development Program of China [2018YFA0605603]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41901041, U1911205]
The total amount of rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) over a given region is proportional to rainfall intensity and the inverse of TC translation speed. Although the contributions of increase in rainfall intensity to larger total rainfall amounts have been extensively examined, observational evidence on impacts of the recently reported but still debated long-term slowdown of TCs on local total rainfall amounts is limited. Here, we find that both observations and the multimodel ensemble of Global Climate Model simulations show a significant slowdown of TCs (11% in observations and 10% in simulations, respectively) from 1961 to 2017 over the coast of China. Our analyses of long-term observations find a significant increase in the 90th percentile of TCinduced local rainfall totals and significant inverse relationships between TC translation speeds and local rainfall totals over the study period. The study also shows that TCs with lower translation speed and higher rainfall totals occurred more frequently after 1990 in the Pearl River Delta in southern China. Our probability analysis indicates that slow-moving TCs are more likely to generate heavy rainfall of higher total amounts than fast-moving TCs. Our findings suggest that slowdown of TCs tends to elevate local rainfall totals and thus impose greater flood risks at the regional scale.
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