期刊
NONLINEAR DYNAMICS
卷 101, 期 3, 页码 1981-1993出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11071-020-05770-9
关键词
COVID-19; Transmission dynamics; Lockdown; Medical resources
资金
- National Key Research and Development Program of China [2018YFE0109600]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [11671241, 11801398]
- Program for the Outstanding Innovative Teams (OIT) of Higher Learning Institutions of Shanxi
- Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province [201801D221024, 201801D221003]
- Outstanding Young Talents Support Plan of Shanxi province
- Selective Support for Scientific and Technological Activities of Overseas Scholars of Shanxi province
Due to the strong infectivity of COVID-19, it spread all over the world in about three months and thus has been studied from different aspects including its source of infection, pathological characteristics, diagnostic technology and treatment. Yet, the influences of control strategies on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 are far from being well understood. In order to reveal the mechanisms of disease spread, we present dynamical models to show the propagation of COVID-19 in Wuhan. Based on mathematical analysis and data analysis, we systematically explore the effects of lockdown and medical resources on the COVID-19 transmission in Wuhan. It is found that the later lockdown is adopted by Wuhan, the fewer people will be infected in Wuhan, and nevertheless it will have an impact on other cities in China and even the world. Moreover, the richer the medical resources, the higher the peak of new infection, but the smaller the final scale. These findings well indicate that the control measures taken by the Chinese government are correct and timely.
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