Assessing impacts of land use policies on environmental sustainability of oasis landscapes with scenario analysis: the case of northern China

Context Oases in China are experiencing large-scale land use/cover change (LUCC), which profoundly affects regional sustainability. To improve sustainability, a series of land-use policies has been implemented. Can these policies effectively promote the sustainable development of oases in China? To answer this question, comprehensively examining the effects of the land-use policies on future LUCC and oasis landscape sustainability is urgently needed; however, such research is currently lacking. Objectives This study aims to evaluate the impacts of major land-use policies on future LUCC and the environmental sustainability of oasis landscapes. Method Taking the Zhangye Oasis as an example, we first developed 56 scenarios with different combinations of six land-use policies. Then, we simulated the LUCC between 2017 and 2050 under the 56 scenarios. Finally, we assessed the impacts of future LUCC on three key ecosystem services (ESs) and the water stress index. Results We found that the examined land-use policies could effectively control the sprawl of built-up areas, maintain croplands, and promote increases in forest and marsh, improving regional ESs. However, these policies will lead to an increase in water consumption, which will exacerbate regional water stress. Thus, these land-use policies cannot comprehensively improve oasis landscape sustainability. Conclusions This paper systematically examines the impacts of six land-use policies on the environmental sustainability of oasis landscapes and reveals that these policies will increase ESs but cause further water shortages. Therefore, strengthening the integrated management of water and land resources is urgently needed to improve current land-use policies and oasis landscape sustainability in a more comprehensive manner.

Automated summary

This study evaluates the impacts of major land-use policies on future LUCC and environmental sustainability of oasis landscapes by developing 56 scenarios with different combinations of six policies and simulating LUCC between 2017 and 2050. The results show that while the policies can control built-up area sprawl and improve regional ecosystem services, they also lead to increased water consumption and exacerbate water stress, indicating the need for more integrated management of water and land resources for comprehensive sustainability improvement.