A matrix population model to aid agency response to grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) in the Great Lakes Basin - Lake Erie

Managers and researchers have identified a reproducing population of grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) in the western basin of Lake Erie, generating concern over the potential threat to ecosystem function in the Great Lakes Basin. Capture histories indicate that grass carp may be present at low levels in other areas of Lake Erie, necessitating a large scale, multi-jurisdictional response. As a result, a group of experts and decision makers began a structured decision making exercise to collaboratively address the threat and identify potential response actions. To aid this process, we developed a spatially explicit periodic matrix population model to project grass carp abundance, and probabilistically evaluate specific management actions. We evaluated four potential management response actions ranging from no action, diffuse removal efforts, and concentrated removal efforts with and without a barrier on the Sandusky River to reduce spawning success. Based on our current knowledge, concentrated removal including a barrier on the Sandusky River provides the most likely path to achieving and maintaining a management target of no more than 10 fish/ha. Our understanding of grass carp ecology in Lake Erie is growing. This model and parameter development methods were designed to flexibly accommodate new information as our understanding of grass carp ecology evolves, or management objectives change. Ultimately, this modeling framework and use of Bayesian methods could facilitate management response efforts for other invasive species occurring over large scales and multiple jurisdictions. (C) 2020 International Association for Great Lakes Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

Managers and researchers have identified a reproducing population of grass carp in the western basin of Lake Erie, leading to concerns about potential threat to ecosystem function in the Great Lakes Basin. Experts and decision makers are conducting structured decision making exercises to collaboratively address the threat and identify potential response actions. They have developed a spatially explicit population model to evaluate various management response actions.