期刊
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
卷 259, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120968
关键词
Life cycle assessment; Uncertainty; Global sensitivity analysis; Emerging technologies; LCA; Sustainability assessment
资金
- European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme within the project SiTaSol [727497]
- H2020 Societal Challenges Programme [727497] Funding Source: H2020 Societal Challenges Programme
A key source of uncertainty in the environmental assessment of emerging technologies is the unpredictable manufacturing, use, and end-of-life pathways a technology can take as it progresses from lab to industrial scale. This uncertainty has sometimes been addressed in life cycle assessment (LCA) by performing scenario analysis. However, the scenario-based approach can be misleading if the probabilities of occurrence of each scenario are not incorporated. It also brings about a practical problem; considering all possible pathways, the number of scenarios can quickly become unmanageable. We present a modelling approach in which all possible pathways are modelled as a single product system with uncertain processes. These processes may or may not be selected once the technology reaches industrial scale according to given probabilities. An uncertainty analysis of such a system provides a single probability distribution for each impact score. This distribution accounts for uncertainty about the product system's final configuration along with other sources of uncertainty. Furthermore, a global sensitivity analysis can identify whether the future selection of certain pathways over others will be of importance for the variance of the impact score. We illustrate the method with a case study of an emerging technology for front-side metallization of photovoltaic cells. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据