Climatic factors influence the spread of COVID-19 in Russia

The study is the first attempt to assess the role of climatic predictors in the rise of COVID-19 intensity in the Russian climatic region. The study used the Random Forest algorithm to understand the underlying associations and monthly scenarios. The results show that temperature seasonality (29.2 +/- 0.9%) has the highest contribution for COVID-19 transmission in the humid continental region. In comparison, the diurnal temperature range (26.8 +/- 0.4%) and temperature seasonality (14.6 +/- 0.8%) had the highest impacts in the sub-arctic region. Our results also show that September and October have favorable climatic conditions for the COVID-19 spread in the sub-arctic and humid continental regions, respectively. From June to August, the high favorable zone for the spread of the disease will shift towards the sub-arctic region from the humid continental region. The study suggests that the government should implement strict measures for these months to prevent the second wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Russia.

Automated summary

This study is the first attempt to assess the impact of climatic predictors on the intensity of COVID-19 in the Russian climatic region. The study found that temperature seasonality has the highest contribution in the humid continental region, while diurnal temperature range and temperature seasonality have the highest impacts in the sub-arctic region. The study suggests implementing strict measures during specific months to prevent a second wave outbreak.