期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 15, 期 9, 页码 -出版社
IOP Publishing Ltd
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9be4
关键词
Permafrost; Siberian larch; TOPMODEL
资金
- JSPS KAKENHI [17K00540]
- Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS)
- Strategic International Research Cooperative Program, Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST)
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) [BE 6485/1-1]
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [17K00540] Funding Source: KAKEN
In eastern Siberia, topography controls the abundance of the larch forest via both drought and flooding stresses. For the reconstruction of these topographical effects, we modified a dynamic vegetation model to represent soil water relocation owing to within-grid heterogeneity of elevation, over-wet-kill of trees, and air temperature differences within-grid. After calibration, the model reasonably reconstructed the geographical distributions of observation-based-estimates of fundamental properties of plant productivity and thermo-hydrology. Thus, the model appropriately responded to environmental gradients in eastern Siberia. The modified model also partially reconstructed the topography control on tree abundance and thermo-hydrology status in eastern Siberia, although its geographical distribution was not always good. In the modified model, soil water redistribution increased the risk of over-wet-kill in lower elevation classes, whereas it reduced the risk of over-wet-kill for larch trees in higher elevation classes. We demonstrated that without considering the latter effect, forest collapse due to over-wet stress would happen throughout eastern Siberia under a forecasted climatic condition during the 21st century, which will deliver a much moister environment throughout eastern Siberia. Therefore, modeling the over-wet-kill of trees without considering topographical heterogeneity would result in the overestimation of forest collapse caused by the over-wet-kill of trees under an expected climate trend in eastern Siberia.
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