期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 15, 期 9, 页码 -出版社
IOP PUBLISHING LTD
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab986f
关键词
hydrology; climate change; hydrologic sensitivity; floods; streamflow
资金
- Bonneville Power Administration's Technology and Innovation Program [TIP 304]
- United States Army Corps of Engineers Climate Preparedness and Resilience Programs
- Bureau of Reclamation [R17AC00024]
- Regional Integration Synthesis and Application (RISA) program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration through the Climate Impacts Research Consortium at Oregon State University
Flooding caused by high streamflow events poses great risk around the world and is projected to increase under climate change. This paper assesses how climate change will alter high streamflow events by changing both the prevalence of different driving mechanisms (i.e. 'flood generating processes') and the magnitude of differently generated floods. We present an analysis of simulated changes in high streamflow events in selected basins in the hydroclimatically diverse Pacific Northwestern United States, classifying the events according to their mechanism. We then compare how the different classes of events respond to changes in climate at the annual scale. In a warmer future, high flow events will be caused less frequently by snowmelt and more frequently by precipitation events. Also, precipitation-driven high flow events are more sensitive to increases in precipitation than are snowmelt-driven high flow events, so the combination of the increase in both frequency and magnitude of precipitation-driven high flow events leads to higher flood likelihood than under each change alone. Our comparison of the results from two emissions pathways shows that a reduction in global emissions will limit the increase in magnitude and prevalence of these precipitation-driven events.
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