Analysis of energy security indicators and CO2 emissions. A case from a developing economy

The growing concerns related to energy demand, supply, energy security, and environmental issues encourage global awareness. The impact of energy imports, fuel cost, energy security, and CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions have become a severe issue for Pakistan which is strongly associated with social, economic and environmental development. In this study, we have estimated eleven energy security indicators for long-run energy supply by applying the MARKAL framework. Business as usual (BAU) and three energy import reduction scenarios (S-a, S-b and S-c) are estimated on primary energy supply, demand, and diversification of energy resources, imported fuel cost, CO2 emissions, and energy security during 2012-2040. The outcomes show that primary energy supply will decrease marginally, while cumulative renewable energy would increase by 28%. Dependency on net energy import ratio will grow by 5.838 times, vulnerability index and net oil import ratio will decrease by -1.276 and -1.105 under base scenarios. Due to maximum fuel consumption by the transport and other sectors, the CO2 emissions would increase by 407.49 Mt in 2040 which could be reduced by renewable energy resources. Finally, energy security and energy supply are optimal in the reduction scenarios which will lessen cost, CO2, and energy supply. Related policies are given below. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.