期刊
BIOSCIENCE
卷 70, 期 9, 页码 744-758出版社
OXFORD UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biaa067
关键词
cropland connectivity risk; network analysis; invasion and saturation; roots and tubers; banana and plantain
类别
资金
- CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tubers, and Bananas
- CGIAR Trust Fund
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1080975]
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change and Food Security
- US Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service grant [11-8453-1483-CA]
- US National Science Foundation (NSF) as part of the joint NSF-National Institutes of Health Ecology of Infectious Disease program [EF-0525712]
- NSF [DEB-0516046]
- University of Florida
The geographic pattern of cropland is an important risk factor for invasion and saturation by crop-specific pathogens and arthropods. Understanding cropland networks supports smart pest sampling and mitigation strategies. We evaluate global networks of cropland connectivity for key vegetatively propagated crops (banana and plantain, cassava, potato, sweet potato, and yam) important for food security in the tropics. For each crop, potential movement between geographic location pairs was evaluated using a gravity model, with associated uncertainty quantification. The highly linked hub and bridge locations in cropland connectivity risk maps are likely priorities for surveillance and management, and for tracing intraregion movement of pathogens and pests. Important locations are identified beyond those locations that simply have high crop density. Cropland connectivity risk maps provide a new risk component for integration with other factors-such as climatic suitability, genetic resistance, and global trade routes-to inform pest risk assessment and mitigation.
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