Space-time patterns of poaching risk: Using the near-repeat hypothesis to inform compliance enforcement in marine protected areas

Protected areas represent an important management tool for biological conservation. However, their benefits are often undermined by a limited ability to ensure effective compliance outcomes. Recent studies reveal that poaching exhibits both spatial and temporal characteristics similar to those observed in traditional forms of crime. The current study examines illegal recreational fishing data from the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) in Australia to identify the presence of predictive spatio-temporal (near-repeat) patterns of poaching. The findings reveal near-repeat poaching chains up to 9000 m in the first seven days of an initial poaching event, which diminish to < 1000 m in the second week. Near-repeat chains were also evident for three consecutive weekends up to 2000 m from initiation. Finally, all near-repeat hotspots were located within broader poaching hotspots, revealing the temporal stability of illegal recreational fishing in the GBRMP. The identification of near-repeat patterns holds important implications for the understanding of poaching and, as a consequence, provides managers with a potentially powerful tool for predicting risk and allocating resources. We discuss the implications for management of our findings through a situational crime prevention framework.