Evaluating the effectiveness of a stove exchange programme on PM2.5 emission reduction

Residential wood combustion (RWC) is one of the most important sources of particulate matter (PM) in urban areas. As a consequence, different types of regulatory instruments are being implemented to reduce emissions. In this study, we evaluate both the potential and actual effect of a subsidy programme for stove exchange, which has been in place for over 20 years in Oslo (Norway). The subsidy programme provides economic support to the inhabitants for substituting old stoves for RWC with new and cleaner stoves as a measure to reduce PM emissions. Different approaches were selected to assess the potential effect of the Oslo subsidy programme. First, we evaluate the potential for reductions in emissions and pollution levels through the use of emission and dispersion modelling under different scenarios. We then assess the actual reductions associated with the stoves already replaced with the subsidy. We conclude the study by evaluating the time variation (2005 to 2018) in emissions, wood consumption and emission factors in Oslo in comparison with other municipalities with and without subsidy programmes in place. Results from emission and dispersion modelling show that the replacement of old wood stoves for new ones could have a significant effect on the reduction of emissions (up to 46%) and PM2.5 levels (up to 21%). Despite that, with near 8% of the total existing stoves in Oslo being exchanged with subsidy, the potential for reduction based on improved emission factors was estimated to be smaller by an order of magnitude. We find no evidence that municipalities with subsidy reduce emissions faster than those without subsidy. We therefore conclude that there is no evidence from our modelling results, supported by available observation data, that indicate that the emissions or concentrations in Oslo have been reduced as a result of the subsidy programme.