COVID-19 UK Lockdown Forecasts and R0

Introduction:The first reported UK case of COVID-19 occurred on 30 January 2020. A lockdown from 24 March was partially relaxed on 10 May. One model to forecast disease spread depends on clinical parameters and transmission rates. Output includes the basic reproduction numberR(0)and the log growth raterin the exponential phase. Methods:Office for National Statistics data on deaths in England and Wales is used to estimater. A likelihood for the transmission parameters is defined from a gaussian density forrusing the mean and standard error of the estimate. Parameter samples from the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm lead to an estimate and credible interval forR(0)and forecasts for cases and deaths. Results:The UK initial log growth rate isr= 0.254 with s.e. 0.004.R-0= 6.94 with 95% CI (6.52, 7.39). In a 12 week lockdown from 24 March with transmission parameters reduced throughout to 5% of their previous values, peaks of around 90,000 severely and 25,000 critically ill patients, and 44,000 cumulative deaths are expected by 16 June. With transmission rising from 5% in mid-April to reach 30%, 50,000 deaths and 475,000 active cases are expected in mid-June. Had such a lockdown begun on 17 March, around 30,000 (28,000, 32,000) fewer cumulative deaths would be expected by 9 June. Discussion:TheR(0)estimate is compatible with some international estimates but over twice the value quoted by the UK government. An earlier lockdown could have saved many thousands of lives.