An uncertainty assessment of reservoir system performance indices under the climate change effect

The study aimed to evaluate the uncertainty indices in reservoir performance of Namrood-Dam(Iran) that affected by climate change. To this end, downscaling was performed for the future period using the output of the EC-EARTH-GCM under the RCP scenarios and employing the LARS-WG6 model. The uncertainty in reservoir performance of under the current and climate change conditions, and 85% and 70% of the agricultural demand was evaluated using the WEAP. Based on the results, the reduction of inflow by 8.36% and 12.64% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, resulted in decreasing of the performance indices. In addition, 30% reducing the agricultural demand under the RCP4.5 had the highest values of sustainability index (SI) and its range for Firouz Kouh and Garmsar agriculture decreased by 20.64% and 34.2%, respectively. The ranges of SI variation were lower in comparison with the other indices, and accordingly, it enjoyed higher reliability for evaluating the system state. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University.