期刊
JOURNAL OF CLINICAL MEDICINE
卷 9, 期 4, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9040944
关键词
novel coronavirus; SEIR model; outside China
Ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) began in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and the number of new patients continues to increase. Even though it began to spread to many other parts of the world, such as other Asian countries, the Americas, Europe, and the Middle East, the impact of secondary outbreaks caused by exported cases outside China remains unclear. We conducted simulations to estimate the impact of potential secondary outbreaks in a community outside China. Simulations using stochastic SEIR model were conducted, assuming one patient was imported to a community. Among 45 possible scenarios we prepared, the worst scenario resulted in the total number of persons recovered or removed to be 997 (95% CrI 990-1000) at day 100 and a maximum number of symptomatic infectious patients per day of 335 (95% CrI 232-478). Calculated mean basic reproductive number (R-0) was 6.5 (Interquartile range, IQR 5.6-7.2). However, better case scenarios with different parameters led to no secondary cases. Altering parameters, especially time to hospital visit. could change the impact of a secondary outbreak. With these multiple scenarios with different parameters, healthcare professionals might be able to better prepare for this viral infection.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据