Risk factors for disease progression in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study

Background: To investigate the risk factors related to aggravation and clinical outcomes in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. Methods: We performed a retrospective study on the risk factors for disease progression of cases with COVID-19. Based on the clinical types, the patients were divided into a progression group and an improvement group. Multivariable logistic regression and ROC curve analysis were performed to explore the risk factors for disease progression. Results: A total of 101 patients were included in this study; diseases progression occurred in 17 patients, 84 patients improved, 6 were transferred to intensive care unit (ICU), and 5 died. The mean time to obtain negative nucleic acid results was 12.5 +/- 5.0 days. Multivariate logistic analysis indicated that age (OR, 0.104; p = .002), C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR, 0.093; p < .001) and lymphocyte count (OR, 3.397; p = .022) were risk factors for disease progression. ROC curve analysis revealed that the AUC of age, CRP and lymphocyte count for disease progression were 0.873, 0.911 and 0.817, respectively. Conclusions: Older age increased CRP and decreased lymphocyte count resulted in potential risk factors for COVID-19 progression. This may be helpful in identifying patients whose condition worsens at an early stage.