期刊
EARTHS FUTURE
卷 8, 期 7, 页码 -出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001470
关键词
glacier; modeling; sea level rise; projections; uncertainties
资金
- Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) program
- WSL (internal innovative project)
- BAFU Hydro-CH2018 project
- H2020 Marie Skodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship [799904]
- NASA-ROSES program [NNX17AB27G, 80NSSC17K0566]
- Climate-KIC program of the European Institute for Innovation and Technology
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) through the International Research Training Group IRTG 1904 ArcTrain
- European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 HELIX project [603864]
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) [MA 6966/1-2]
- NASA [NNX17AB27G, 1003985] Funding Source: Federal RePORTER
Glacier mass loss is recognized as a major contributor to current sea level rise. However, large uncertainties remain in projections of glacier mass loss on global and regional scales. We present an ensemble of 288 glacier mass and area change projections for the 21st century based on 11 glacier models using up to 10 general circulation models and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as boundary conditions. We partition the total uncertainty into the individual contributions caused by glacier models, general circulation models, RCPs, and natural variability. We find that emission scenario uncertainty is growing throughout the 21st century and is the largest source of uncertainty by 2100. The relative importance of glacier model uncertainty decreases over time, but it is the greatest source of uncertainty until the middle of this century. The projection uncertainty associated with natural variability is small on the global scale but can be large on regional scales. The projected global mass loss by 2100 relative to 2015 (79 +/- 56 mm sea level equivalent for RCP2.6, 159 +/- 86 mm sea level equivalent for RCP8.5) is lower than, but well within, the uncertainty range of previous projections.
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