期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 117, 期 13, 页码 7071-7081出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1919049117
关键词
food system shock; multiple breadbasket failure; cold temperature yield response; India-Pakistan conflict; global gridded crop model intercomparison (GGCMI)
资金
- Open Philanthropy Project
- University of Chicago Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP) (NSF) [SES-146364]
- NSF [ACI-1532235, ACI-1532236]
- Army Research Office/Army Research Laboratory [W911NF1810267]
A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 degrees C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (+/- 1)%, 11 (+/- 8)%, 3 (+/- 5)%, and 17 (+/- 2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (+/- 4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30 degrees N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据