期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 117, 期 22, 页码 12192-12200出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1920816117
关键词
climate change; phenology; spring leaf-out; late frost; freezing damage
资金
- ETH Zurich Postdoctoral Fellowship Program
- China Scholarship Council
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [RE 603/25-1]
- DOB Ecology
- Plant-for-the-Planet
- German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development
- Villum Fondon Grant [16549]
- Independent Research Fund Denmark Grant [6108-00078B]
- Aarhus University Research Foundation (AUFF) Starting Grant [AUFF-F-201 8-7-8]
- H2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions [748753]
- European Research Council [669609]
- General Directorate of State Forests, Warsaw, Poland [1/07, OR/2717/3/11]
- United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
- Forest Service
- Forest Inventory and Analysis Program
- University of Alaska Fairbanks
- USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture McIntire-Stennis Projects [1017711]
- NFI of Canada
- Ministere des Forets, de la Faune et des Parcs du Quebec (Canada)
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
- Department of Biotechnology, the Government of India, through the project Mapping and Quantitative Assessment of Geographic Distribution and Population Status of Plant Resources of Eastern Himalayan Region [BT/PR7928/NDB/52/9/2006]
- state assignment of Methodical Approaches to the Assessment of the Structural Organization and Functioning of Forest Ecosystems [AAAA-A18-1180524001307]
- Marie Curie Actions (MSCA) [748753] Funding Source: Marie Curie Actions (MSCA)
Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that similar to 35% of the European and similar to 26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only similar to 10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.
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