期刊
LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY
卷 35, 期 7, 页码 1553-1570出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10980-020-01036-2
关键词
Leadbeater's possum; Gymnobelideus leadbeateri; Conservation planning; Climate change; Fire; Timber harvesting; Planned burning
资金
- Australian Research Council (ARC)
- Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP)
- VicForests through an ARC Linkage Project [LP140100580]
- Victorian DELWP iFER (Integrated Forest Ecosystem Research) program
- Australian Research Council Future Fellowship [FT120100751]
- Australian Research Council [LP140100580] Funding Source: Australian Research Council
Context Effective conservation planning for species depends on vegetation models that can capture the dynamics of habitat elements across both spatial and temporal domains. Incorporating these dynamics at landscape scales is essential for understanding the impact of natural disturbance, management, and climate change on habitat availability and stability on fauna. Objectives To explore the impact of resource availability, wildfire, forest management (timber harvesting and planned burning), and climate change on the habitat of the critically endangered Leadbeater's possum (LBP; Gymnobelideus leadbeateri McCoy) with the goal of understanding the importance of these factors on future habitat availability. Methods We used a spatially explicit landscape-simulation model, LANDIS-II, linked to habitat suitability and patch modelling, to identify quantity, configuration, and temporal stability of habitat for LBP. We used boosted regression trees and general additive modelling to explore the importance of management and disturbance factors on future LBP habitat availability. Results Wildfire was the main factor determining all habitat components for LBP, both alone and in interaction with climate change and forest management. We identified stable habitat patches that will likely persist under future conditions, and that might be prioritised for conservation in a dynamic landscape. Conclusions We highlight how the current reserve network could be augmented to improve the future conservation status of LBP. Our approach provides conservation planners with a spatially and temporally explicit framework for incorporating the key dynamic processes that are typically omitted in conservation planning.
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