期刊
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
卷 65, 期 9, 页码 1458-1473出版社
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2020.1750617
关键词
agent-based model (ABM); LISFLOOD; levee effect; adaptation effect; decision making
资金
- European Research Council (ERC) within the project HydroSocialExtremes: Uncovering the Mutual Shaping of Hydrological Extremes and Society [ERC] [771678]
- Swedish Research Council FORMAS
- Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, CNDS
Two-way interactions and feedback between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains determine the complex human-flood system and change vulnerability over time. To focus on the dynamic role of individual and governmental decision making on flood-risk management, we developed and implemented a coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework. Within this framework, household agents are located in a floodplain protected by a levee system. Individual behaviour is based on Protection Motivation Theory and includes the options to (1) not react to flood risk; (2) implement individual flood protection measures; or (3) file a complaint to the government. The government decides about reinforcing the levee system, compromising between a cost-benefit analysis and filed complaints from households. We found that individual decision making can significantly influence flood risk. In addition, the coupled agent-based and hydraulic modelling framework approach captures commonly observed socio-hydrological dynamics, namely levee and adaptation effects. It provides an explanatory tool for assessing spatial and temporal dynamics of flood risk in a socio-hydrological system.
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