Infection dynamics, dispersal, and adaptation: understanding the lack of recovery in a remnant frog population following a disease outbreak

Emerging infectious diseases can cause dramatic declines in wildlife populations. Sometimes, these declines are followed by recovery, but many populations do not recover. Studying differential recovery patterns may yield important information for managing disease-afflicted populations and facilitating population recoveries. In the late 1980s, a chytridiomycosis outbreak caused multiple frog species in Australia's Wet Tropics to decline. Populations of some species (e.g., Litoria nannotis) subsequently recovered, while others (e.g., Litoria dayi) did not. We examined the population genetics and current infection status of L. dayi, to test several hypotheses regarding the failure of its populations to recover: (1) a lack of individual dispersal abilities has prevented recolonization of previously occupied locations, (2) a loss of genetic variation has resulted in limited adaptive potential, and (3) L. dayi is currently adapting to chytridiomycosis. We found moderate-to-high levels of gene flow and diversity (Fst range: <0.01-0.15; minor allele frequency (MAF): 0.192-0.245), which were similar to previously published levels for recovered L. nannotis populations. This suggests that dispersal ability and genetic diversity do not limit the ability of L. dayi to recolonize upland sites. Further, infection intensity and prevalence increased with elevation, suggesting that chytridiomycosis is still limiting the elevational range of L. dayi. Outlier tests comparing infected and uninfected individuals consistently identified 18 markers as putatively under selection, and several of those markers matched genes that were previously implicated in infection. This suggests that L. dayi has genetic variation for genes that affect infection dynamics and may be undergoing adaptation.