期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 47, 期 10, 页码 -出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL086749
关键词
sea ice; CMIP6; Arctic; climate models; model evaluation
资金
- European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [641816, 727862]
- National Science Foundation (NSF)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research - NSF [1852977]
- CSIRO
- Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Program
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
- CSIRO Climate Science Centre
- WCRP-CliC Project
- Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme [GA01101]
- Research Concile of Norway through INES [270061]
- Arctic Across Scales Project through the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation [KAW2016.0024]
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Council of Canada
- Fond de recherche du Qubec-Nature et Technologies
- Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
- NSF-OPP Award [1847398, 1504023]
- EU Horizon 2020 OSeaIce project, under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Grant [834493]
- German Ministry for Education and Research
- H2020 MSCA IF [846824]
- Regional and Global Modeling and Analysis program of the Department of Energy's Biological and Environmental Research division
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft under Germanys Excellence Strategy [EXC 2037, 390683824]
- National Science Foundation [PLR-1643431]
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Grant [NA18OAR4310274]
- Canada C150 Chair Program
We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea-ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea-ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea-ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea-ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea-ice free (sea-ice area <1 x 10(6) km(2)) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 examined here.
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