期刊
EUROSURVEILLANCE
卷 25, 期 12, 页码 2-5出版社
EUR CENTRE DIS PREVENTION & CONTROL
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293
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Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a modelbased evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CO): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% Crl: 22,250-67,63z) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.
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