Do energy efficiency policies save energy? A new approach based on energy policy indicators (in the EU Member States)

Over the last two decades, the European Union and its Member States have introduced policies aimed at improving energy efficiency. The Energy Service Directives (ESD) introduced the concept of measurement of energy savings attributed to policies. Two different and complementary methodologies for the evaluation of energy savings have been developed under the ESD: the bottom-up (BU) approach, based on a technical analysis of each measure, and the top-down (TD) approach, based on the analysis of how energy intensity changes over time. BU methods can hardly take into account policy-induced behavioural changes, whereas TD methods have difficulties in disentangling policy-induced savings from other savings. Econometric models have been proposed as a viable alternative to deal with both drawbacks. The purpose of this article is to present an econometric model aimed at estimating the energy savings induced by energy efficiency policies in the EU Member States in the period 1990-2013. We introduce an explicit measure of Energy Policy Intensity based on the MURE database, which is used as explanatory variable in a dynamic panel model for 29 European countries. Our results suggest that energy consumption in 2013 in Europe would have been about 12% higher in the absence of energy efficiency policies.