Proposal for a Method Predicting Suitable Areas for Installation of Ground-Source Heat Pump Systems Based on Response Surface Methodology

The installation potential of ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems has been studied based on the spatial interpolation of numerical simulation results using ground heat exchanger (GHE) models. This study is the first to create an estimation formula for the heat exchange rate (HER) to obtain a solution equivalent to the numerical analysis results considering the average method when supplying three-dimensional (3D) hydrogeological information that affects the HER to a two-dimensional (2D) map. It was found that the main factors affecting the HER were groundwater flow velocity, subsurface temperature, and thermal conductivity. The response surface methodology was utilized to approximate the HER using the above-mentioned three parameters. The estimated HER showed very strong agreement with that calculated by the GHE models. The application of the estimation formula to the simulation of the 3D groundwater flow and heat transport model of the Sendai Plain (Japan) better reflects the hydrogeological information of the regional model than conventional maps. The proposed method improves the spatial resolution of maps and allows for the easy creation of the HER estimation formula.