Validation of distinct type 2 diabetes clusters and their association with diabetes complications in the DEVOTE, LEADER and SUSTAIN-6 cardiovascular outcomes trials

Aims To validate the clusters of Swedish individuals with recent-onset diabetes at differential risk of complications, which were identified in a previous study, in three global populations with long-standing type 2 diabetes (T2D) who were at high cardiovascular risk, and to test for differences in the risk of major diabetes complications and survival endpoints. Materials and methods We assigned participants from recent global outcomes trials (DEVOTE [n = 7637], LEADER [n = 9340] and SUSTAIN-6 [n = 3297]) to the previously defined clusters according to age at diabetes diagnosis, baseline glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and body mass index (BMI). Outcomes were assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank tests. Results The T2D clusters were consistently replicated across the three trial cohorts. The risk of major adverse cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death differed significantly, in all trials, across clusters over a median follow-up duration of 2.0, 3.8 and 2.1 years, respectively, and was highest for the cluster of participants with high HbA1c and low BMI (P < 0.05 in DEVOTE and LEADER). In LEADER and SUSTAIN-6, the risk of nephropathy differed across clusters (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.003, respectively). The risk of severe hypoglycaemia differed in DEVOTE (P = 0.006). Conclusions Previously identified clusters can be replicated in three geographically diverse cohorts of long-standing T2D and are associated with cluster-specific risk profiles for additional clinical and survival outcomes, providing further validation of the clustering methodology. The external validity and stability of clusters across cohorts provides a premise for future work to optimize the clustering approach to yield T2D subgroups with maximum predictive validity who may benefit from subtype-specific treatment paradigms.