Identification and validation of an individualized autophagy-clinical prognostic index in gastric cancer patients

Background The purpose of this study is to perform bioinformatics analysis of autophagy-related genes in gastric cancer, and to construct a multi-gene joint signature for predicting the prognosis of gastric cancer. Methods GO and KEGG analysis were applied for differentially expressed autophagy-related genes in gastric cancer, and PPI network was constructed in Cytoscape software. In order to optimize the prognosis evaluation system of gastric cancer, we established a prognosis model integrating autophagy-related genes. We used single factor Cox proportional risk regression analysis to screen genes related to prognosis from 204 autophagy-related genes in The Atlas Cancer Genome (TCGA) gastric cancer cohort. Then, the generated genes were applied to the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO). Finally, the selected genes were further included in the multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to establish the prognosis model. According to the median risk score, patients were divided into high-risk group and low-risk group, and survival analysis was conducted to evaluate the prognostic value of risk score. Finally, by combining clinic-pathological features and prognostic gene signatures, a nomogram was established to predict individual survival probability. Results GO analysis showed that the 28 differently expressed autophagy-related genes was enriched in cell growth, neuron death, and regulation of cell growth. KEGG analysis showed that the 28 differently expressed autophagy-related genes were related to platinum drug resistance, apoptosis and p53 signaling pathway. The risk score was constructed based on 4 genes (GRID2, ATG4D,GABARAPL2, CXCR4), and gastric cancer patients were significantly divided into high-risk and low-risk groups according to overall survival. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, risk score was still an independent prognostic factor (HR = 1.922, 95% CI = 1.573-2.349, P < 0.001). Cumulative curve showed that the survival time of patients with low-risk score was significantly longer than that of patients with high-risk score (P < 0.001). The external data GSE62254 proved that nomograph had a great ability to evaluate the prognosis of individual gastric cancer patients. Conclusions This study provides a potential prognostic marker for predicting the prognosis of GC patients and the molecular biology of GC autophagy.