Seedling maturation drives spatial variability in demographic dynamics of an invader with multiple introductions: insights from an LTRE analysis

Multiple introductions are hypothesized to facilitate the success of invasive plant species, because they can result in novel genotypes through intraspecific hybridization potentially increasing the ability to adapt to the novel environment. In this study, we address the question of how the demography of an invader with multiple introductions and intraspecific hybridization varies across sites. This was done by modeling the population dynamics of Brazilian pepper, Schinus terebinthifolia Raddi (Anacardiaceae), a shrub native to Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina that has invaded the global subtropics and was introduced to Florida on two separate occasions. This species exhibits variability in growth form such that vertical and lateral growth are not strongly associated. Our demographic field work took place at six sites spanning the introduced range in Florida and differing in introduction history. For each site we constructed integral projection models where the probabilities of survival, growth and reproduction were modeled as functions of two different metrics of size, the continuous variables diameter and height, metrics of vertical and lateral growth, respectively. We performed a Life Table Response Experiment analysis to decompose the effects of variation among sites in vital rates on the population dynamics of S. terebinthifolia. We found that spatial variation in population dynamics was driven primarily by site-level differences in the maturation of seedlings into reproductive adults. The survival and growth of the largest individuals had the highest elasticity, suggesting that management actions capable of decreasing these vital rates would have the greatest effect on reducing the population growth rate.