4.6 Article

A new hybrid approach for evaluating technology risks and opportunities in the energy transition in Ireland

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ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.eist.2020.01.012

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Scenario ensembles; Stakeholder consultation; Risks & opportunities; Quantifying trade-offs

资金

  1. Science Foundation Ireland (SFI)
  2. NTR Foundation [12/RC/2302]

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We combine energy systems optimization models (ESOM), multi-criteria assessment (MCA) and a stakeholder workshop to evaluate decarbonization risks, trade-offs and opportunities for Ireland. Using an ESOM of Ireland, we develop decarbonisation scenario ensembles with variations across multiple dimensions, including carbon budget and technology availability as informed by a stakeholder workshop. For these scenario ensembles, we quantify investment risk and technology robustness and use these new attributes to conduct an MCA of technology risks, trade-offs and opportunities. Results include an assessment of technology opportunities for two investor archetypes, i.e., risk minimizing and return maximizing, and a sensitivity analysis of the MCA weights using Monte Carlo simulation. This represents a new methodology which demonstrates a synthesis of insights into technology opportunities associated with Ireland's energy transition and their resilience across risk and economic criteria. By incorporating and displaying results for a diversity of perspectives, this work underlines the importance of transdisciplinary research.

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