期刊
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
卷 124, 期 23, 页码 12655-12666出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2019JD031416
关键词
Madden-Julian oscillation; quasi-biennial oscillation; prediction
资金
- NSF [AGS-1652289, AGS-1543932]
- NOAA [NA16OAR4310070]
- KMA RD Program [KMI2018-03110]
- NOAA's Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program
- Regional and Global Model Analysis component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research [NSF IA 1844590]
- NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program [80NSSC18K1347]
- NCAR - NSF [1852977]
The impact of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the prediction of the tropospheric Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is evaluated in reforecasts from nine models participating in subseasonal prediction projects, including the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) and Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) projects. When MJO prediction skill is analyzed for December to February, MJO prediction skill is higher in the easterly phase of the QBO than the westerly phase, consistent with previous studies. However, the relationship between QBO phase and MJO prediction skill is not statistically significant for most models. This insignificant QBO-MJO skill relationship is further confirmed by comparing two subseasonal reforecast experiments with the Community Earth System Model v1 using both a high-top (46-level) and low-top (30-level) version of the Community Atmosphere Model v5. While there are clear differences in the forecasted QBO between the two model top configurations, a negligible change is shown in the MJO prediction, indicating that the QBO in this model may not directly control the MJO prediction and supporting the insignificant QBO-MJO skill relationship found in SubX and S2S models.
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