Construction of an immune-related genes nomogram for the preoperative prediction of axillary lymph node metastasis in triple-negative breast cancer

Immune system disorder is associated with metastasis of triple-negative breast cancers (TNBCs). A robust, individualized immune-related genes (IRGs)-based classifier was aimed to develop and validate in our study to precisely estimate the axillary lymph node (ALN) status preoperatively in patients with early-stage TNBC. We first analyzed RNA sequencing profiles in TNBC patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas database by using bioinformatics approaches, and screened 23 differentially expressed IRGs. A 9-gene panel was generated with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.68-0.87]. We detected the 9 ALN-status-related IRGs in the training set (n = 133) and developed a reduced and optimized five-IRGs signature, which effectively distinguished TNBC patients with ALN metastasis (AUC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.65-0.86), and was superior to preoperative ultrasound-based ALN status (AUC, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.53-0.93). Predictive efficiency (AUC, 0.77; 95% CI 0.61-0.93) of this five-IRGs signature was validated in the validation set (n = 81). Furthermore, IRGs nomogram incorporated IRGs signature with US-based ALN status showed higher ALN status prediction efficacy than US-based ALN status and five-IRGs signature alone in both training and validation sets. IRGs nomogram may aid in identifying patients who can be exempted from axillary surgery. Novelty and impact: An immune-related genes (IRGs) nomogram was first developed and externally validated in our study, which incorporated the IRGs signature with ultrasound (US)-based axillary lymph nodes (ALN) status. IRGs nomogram is superior to IRGs signature alone for preoperative estimation of ALN metastasis in patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). It is a favourable biomarker for preoperatively predicting ALN metastasis risk and may aid in clinical decision-making in early-stage TNBCs.