Simulation of the meltwater under different climate change scenarios in a poorly gauged snow and glacier-fed chitral river catchment (Hindukush region)

Seasonal and annual water supplies of the rivers originating in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan are important to manage the Indus basin irrigation system for better agricultural production and its dependent agrarian economy. In this study, we simulated the current and future snowmelt runoff in a poorly gauged river basin of the Hindukush region under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) furnished with satellite snow cover maps and hydro-meteorological data were used to simulate the daily river discharge for the period 2000-2005. The results indicated that SRM has effectually simulated the runoff in Chitral River with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient of 0.85 (0.84) and 0.88 (0.83) in the basin-wide (zone-wise) application during the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The results obtained under future climate change scenario showed similar to 14-19% increase in mean summer discharge under three mid-21(st) century RCP (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios. While an increase of similar to 13-37% is expected under late-21(st) century RCP scenarios. This study can help water resource managers to plan and manage peak discharges from the Chitral River Basin in the future and can thus prevent major losses due to floods in the area.

Automated summary

This study simulated the snowmelt runoff in a river basin in the Hindukush region of Pakistan and predicted future changes in water supply and river discharge. The results showed a significant increase in future river discharge, which has important implications for water resource management and flood prevention.