The fate of Madagascar's rainforest habitat

Climate change and habitat loss threaten species survival in Madagascar. Ruffed lemurs, a representative species in the eastern rainforest, could lose 38-93% of their habitat from climate change and deforestation by 2070; protecting areas from deforestation is necessary to protect Malagasy biodiversity. Madagascar has experienced extensive deforestation and overharvesting, and anthropogenic climate change will compound these pressures. Anticipating these threats to endangered species and their ecosystems requires considering both climate change and habitat loss effects. The genus Varecia (ruffed lemurs), which is composed of two Critically Endangered forest-obligate species, can serve as a status indicator of the biodiverse eastern rainforest of Madagascar. Here, we combined decades of research to show that the suitable habitat for ruffed lemurs could be reduced by 29-59% from deforestation, 14-75% from climate change (representative concentration pathway 8.5) or 38-93% from both by 2070. If current protected areas avoid further deforestation, climate change will still reduce the suitable habitat by 62% (range: 38-83%). If ongoing deforestation continues, the suitable habitat will decline by 81% (range: 66-93%). Maintaining and enhancing the integrity of protected areas, where rates of forest loss are lower, will be essential for ensuring persistence of the diversity of the rapidly diminishing Malagasy rainforests.