期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 117, 期 4, 页码 1867-1876出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1912921117
关键词
delta; water level; sea level; subsidence; Bangladesh
资金
- French Research Agency (Agence Nationale de la Recherche [ANR]) under the Deltas Under Global Impact of Change (DELTA) project [ANR-17-CE03-0001]
- Belmont Forum Coastal Vulnerability Program via the ANR [ANR-13-JCLI-0002]
- US NSF [ICER-1342644]
- Centre national d'etudes spatiales (CNES) through the project Terre Solide, Ocean, Surfaces Continentales et Atmosphere (TOSCA)
- European Research Area for Climate Services (ERA4CS)/Integrating Sea-Level Projections in Climate Services for Coastal Adaptation (INSeaPTION) project [690462]
- Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [XDA19070302]
- National Key R&D Program of China [2017YFA0603103]
Being one of the most vulnerable regions in the world, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta presents a major challenge for climate change adaptation of nearly 200 million inhabitants. It is often considered as a delta mostly exposed to sea-level rise and exacerbated by land subsidence, even if the local vertical land movement rates remain uncertain. Here, we reconstruct the water-level (WL) changes over 1968 to 2012, using an unprecedented set of 101 water-level gauges across the delta. Over the last 45 y, WL in the delta increased slightly faster (similar to 3 mm/y), than global mean sea level (similar to 2 mm/y). However, from 2005 onward, we observe an acceleration in the WL rise in the west of the delta. The interannual WL fluctuations are strongly modulated by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) variability, with WL lower than average by 30 to 60 cm during co-occurrent El Nino and positive IOD events and higher-than-average WL, by 16 to 35 cm, during La Nina years. Using satellite altimetry and WL reconstructions, we estimate that the maximum expected rates of delta subsidence during 1993 to 2012 range from 1 to 7 mm/y. By 2100, even under a greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5), the subsidence could double the projected sea-level rise, making it reach 85 to 140 cm across the delta. This study provides a robust regional estimate of contemporary relative WL changes in the delta induced by continental freshwater dynamics, vertical land motion, and sea-level rise, giving a basis for developing climate mitigation strategies.
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