Recent change in benthic macrofaunal community composition in relation to physical forcing in the Pacific Arctic

There is growing evidence that increased Pacific water transport into the Arctic affects the marine ecosystem. One of the theoretical predictions for a future Arctic characterized by such environmental change is that subarctic taxa will expand northward and invade the native Arctic ecosystem. This study focuses on variation in macrofaunal community composition and the influence of changing physical drivers at known benthic hotspots in the Pacific Arctic. The average number of macrofaunal family-level taxa has increased significantly south of St. Lawrence Island and in the Chirikov Basin, whereas the number of macrofaunal taxa in the southeastern Chukchi Sea showed no significant trend over the 2000-2013 time period. However, the Shannon-Weaver diversity index, based on abundance, did not mirror these regional changes in the number of macrofaunal taxa, indicating that the abundance of newly present taxa was negligible compared to the entire abundance already present. We also investigated temporal variations in meridional sea level gradient and local winds, which contribute 2/3 and 1/3 of the variation in northward volume transport at Bering Strait, respectively. There were significant increasing trends in the meridional sea level gradient and local winds, suggesting the increased northward seawater volume transports over the benthic hotspots could contribute to the expansion of subarctic taxa into these northern Arctic regions. Our data suggest an increase in macrofaunal taxa type with increasing current transport northward into the Pacific Arctic region that could have a strong influence in restructuring the benthic ecosystem in this region in the future.