An acceleration in hypertension-related mortality for middle-aged and older Americans, 1999-2016: An observational study

Background Hypertension-related mortality has been increasing in recent years; however, limited information exists concerning rate, temporal, secular, and geographic trends in the United States. Methods and results Using CDC death certificate data spanning 1999-2016, we sought to delineate trends in deaths attributable to an underlying cause of hypertension using joinpoint regression and proportion testing. From 1999-2016, the hypertension-related mortality rate increased by 36.4% with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 1.8% for individuals >= 35 years of age. Interestingly, there was a notable acceleration in the AAPC of hypertension mortality between 2011 and 2016 (2.7% per year). This increase was due to a significant uptick in mortality for individuals >= 55 years of age with the greatest AAPC occurring in individuals 55-64 (4.5%) and 65-74 (5.1%) years of age. Increased mortality and AAPC were pervasive throughout sex, ethnicity, and White and American Indian or Alaska Native race, but not Black or African American race. From 2011-2016, there were significant increases in AAPC for hypertension-related mortality with contributing causes of atrial fibrillation, heart failure, diabetes, obesity, and vascular dementia. Elevated mortality was observed for conditions with a contributing cause of hypertension that included chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and all types of falls. Geographically, increases in AAPCs and mortality rates were observed for 25/51 States between 2011 and 2016. Conclusions Our results indicate hypertension-related mortality may have accelerated since 2011 for middle-aged and older Americans, which may create new challenges in care and healthcare planning.