Simulation of Alfvenic avalanche onset in NSTX

In some tokamak discharges, a number of Alfven eigenmodes (AEs) have been observed to cause a large-scale collapse of the high energy particle distribution, a phenomenon referred to as an avalanche. We examine the necessary conditions for an avalanche using the available experimental information from NSTX on the equilibrium and mode properties for two cases, one with a measurable but benign AE activity and one with an AE activity leading up to an avalanche. To produce an avalanche, the modes present in the discharge must possess resonances that can overlap with a modest increase in instability magnitude, providing a path to global particle stochastic motion. We find that the modes present in the avalanche-free discharge do not provide such a path even at a very large amplitude. During the discharge which subsequently produces an avalanche, the high energy population is growing and the Alfven frequency is dropping due to increasing density, and we find that both these changes, producing a small increased drive or an increased resonance width for the Alfven modes, can lead in this case to uncontrolled mode growth and large-scale beam particle loss.