Evaluating the effectiveness of the pollutant discharge permit program in China: A case study of the Nenjiang River Basin

China is continually seeking to improve river water quality. Implemented in 1996, the total pollutant load control system (TPLCS) is a regulatory strategy to reduce total pollutant loads, under which a Pollutant Discharge Permit (PDP) program tracks and regulates nutrient inputs from point source polluters. While this has been promising, the input-response relationship between discharge permits and water quality targets is largely unclear - especially in China's large and complex river basins. In response, this study involved a quantitative analysis method to combine the water quality targets of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) with allocated PDPs in the Nenjiang River Basin, China. We demonstrated our approach by applying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the Nenjiang River Basin for hydrological and water quality simulation. Ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N) was used as the primary water quality indicator. Modelling indicated that only one control section in the wider river basin did not achieve the water quality target, suggesting that the TPLCS is largely effective. The framework should be applied in other basins to study the effectiveness of PDP policies, advise further updates to the TPLCS, and ultimately aim to achieve freshwater quality targets nationally.