A 16-mRNA signature optimizes recurrence-free survival prediction of Stages II and III gastric cancer

High-throughput messenger RNA (mRNA) analysis has become a powerful tool for exploring tumor recurrence or metastasis mechanisms. Here, we constructed a signature to predict the recurrence risk of Stages II and III gastric cancer (GC) patients. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method Cox regression model was utilized to construct the signature. Using this method, a 16-mRNA signature was identified to be associated with the relapse-free survival of Stages II and III GCs in training dataset GSE62254 (n = 194). Then this signature was validated in an independent Gene Expression Omnibus cohort GSE26253 (n = 297) and a dataset of The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA; n = 235). This classifier could successfully screen out the high-risk Stages II and III GCs in the training cohort (hazard ratio [HR] = 40.91; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.58-299.7; p < .0001). Analysis in two independent validation cohorts yielded consistent results (GSE26253: HR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.17-2.43,; p = .0045; TCGA: HR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.13-3.56, p = .0146). Cox regression analyses revealed that the risk score derived from this signature was an independent risk factor in Stages II and III GCs. Besides, a nomogram was constructed to serve clinical practice. Through gene set variation analysis, we found several gene sets associated with chemotherapeutic drug resistance and tumor metastasis significantly enriched in high-risk patients. In summary, this 16-mRNA signature can be used as a powerful tool for prognostic evaluation and help clinicians identify high-risk patients.